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Igman Konjic vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
3 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
5/19/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 27Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Igman Konjic53%
×Draw25%
Zvijezda Gradačac22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.59
Zvijezda Gradačac
0.91

Igman Konjic creates 75% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.53
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.80
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
78%
Igman Konjic or Zvijezda Gradačac
75%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
47%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
28%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
80%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
47%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
21%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
60%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
23%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
71%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
53%
level
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
22%

Igman Konjic at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Igman Konjic 3–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Igman Konjic beat Zvijezda Gradačac 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.