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Igman Konjic vs Travnik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 0
Travnik
Travnik
S. Kasic 83'
8/14/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Igman Konjic56%
×Draw25%
Travnik19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.63
Travnik
0.84

Igman Konjic creates 94% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 80 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.55
Travnik
0.91

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.77
Travnik
1.70

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Travnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Travnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
81%
Igman Konjic or Travnik
75%
Draw or Travnik
44%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
30%
Travnik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
80%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
48%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
22%
Travnik 1+ goals
57%
Travnik 2+ goals
21%
Travnik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
74%
Travnik (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Travnik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.70 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + Travnik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Travnik attack 0.91 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
56%
level
25%
Travnik scores more
19%

Igman Konjic at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
S. Kasic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Travnik

Igman Konjic beat Travnik 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 14, 2021.

Goals: S. Kasic (83').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.