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Igman Konjic vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
L. Pejovic 90'
B. Hegic 69', 54'
S. Skrijelj 48', 26'
D. Peric 17'
9/27/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Igman Konjic50%
×Draw26%
TOŠK Tešanj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.54
TOŠK Tešanj
0.99

Igman Konjic creates 56% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 97 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.55
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.77
TOŠK Tešanj
1.53

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
76%
Igman Konjic or TOŠK Tešanj
74%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
50%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
26%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
79%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
45%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
20%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
63%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
26%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
67%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
50%
level
26%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
24%

Igman Konjic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
D. Peric
26'
S. Skrijelj
48'
S. Skrijelj
54'
B. Hegic
69'
B. Hegic
90'
L. Pejovic
Igman
TOŠK
A. Peternac
Manager: A. Peternac
A. Mrguda
Manager: A. Mrguda

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs TOŠK Tešanj

TOŠK Tešanj beat Igman Konjic 5-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Peric (17'), S. Skrijelj (26', 48'), B. Hegic (54', 69'), L. Pejovic (90').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.