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Igman Konjic vs Tomislav — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
2 – 1
Tomislav
Tomislav
10/16/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Igman Konjic52%
×Draw25%
Tomislav23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.59
Tomislav
0.98

Igman Konjic creates 62% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 64 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.55
Tomislav
1.20

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.77
Tomislav
1.64

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Tomislav+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Tomislav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
77%
Igman Konjic or Tomislav
75%
Draw or Tomislav
48%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
27%
Tomislav wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
80%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
47%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
21%
Tomislav 1+ goals
62%
Tomislav 2+ goals
26%
Tomislav 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
69%
Tomislav (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Tomislav away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + Tomislav defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tomislav attack 1.20 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
52%
level
25%
Tomislav scores more
23%

Igman Konjic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Tomislav

Igman Konjic beat Tomislav 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.