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Igman Konjic vs Siroki Brijeg — Premijer Liga 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
4/19/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic39%
×Draw28%
Siroki Brijeg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.25
Siroki Brijeg
1.14

Igman Konjic creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 110 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.06
Siroki Brijeg
0.97

allows per match

Igman Konjic
1.31
Siroki Brijeg
1.43

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Siroki Brijeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
67%
Igman Konjic or Siroki Brijeg
72%
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
61%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
17%
Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
71%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
36%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
13%
Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
68%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
32%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
54%
Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
39%
level
28%
Siroki Brijeg scores more
33%

Igman Konjic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Siroki Brijeg

Igman Konjic beat Siroki Brijeg 2-1 in Premijer Liga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.