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Igman Konjic vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Posušje
Posušje
4/14/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic43%
×Draw28%
Posušje29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.29
Posušje
1.02

Igman Konjic creates 26% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 85 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.06
Posušje
0.73

allows per match

Igman Konjic
1.31
Posušje
1.52

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
71%
Igman Konjic or Posušje
72%
Draw or Posušje
57%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
19%
Posušje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
72%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
37%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
14%
Posušje 1+ goals
64%
Posušje 2+ goals
27%
Posušje 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
59%
Posušje (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Posušje attack 0.73 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
43%
level
28%
Posušje scores more
29%

Igman Konjic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Igman Konjic 1–1 Posušje

Igman Konjic and Posušje drew 1-1 in Premijer Liga on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.