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Igman Konjic vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 0
Orašje
Orašje
9/7/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Igman Konjic60%
×Draw22%
Orašje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.85
Orašje
0.88

Igman Konjic creates 110% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.53
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.80
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
83%
Igman Konjic or Orašje
78%
Draw or Orašje
40%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
35%
Orašje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
84%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
55%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
28%
Orašje 1+ goals
59%
Orašje 2+ goals
22%
Orašje 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
77%
Orašje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Orašje attack 0.96 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
60%
level
22%
Orašje scores more
17%

Igman Konjic at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Orašje

Igman Konjic beat Orašje 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.