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Igman Konjic vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
3 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
11/14/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Igman Konjic63%
×Draw22%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.87
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.77

Igman Konjic creates 143% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.53
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.80
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
85%
Igman Konjic or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
78%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
37%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
38%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
85%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
56%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
29%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
54%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
18%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
81%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
63%
level
22%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
15%

Igman Konjic at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Igman Konjic beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.