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Igman Konjic vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 1
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
11/9/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Igman Konjic65%
×Draw21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.96
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.78

Igman Konjic creates 151% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 8 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.53
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.80
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
86%
Igman Konjic or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
79%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
35%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
40%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
86%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
58%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
31%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
54%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
18%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
82%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.96

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
65%
level
21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
14%

Igman Konjic at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

Igman Konjic and Metalleghe-BSI Jajce drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.