Igman Konjic 2–0 Jedinstvo Bihać: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jedinstvo Bihać

S. Kasic 5'

D. Blagojevis 2'

4/30/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Igman Konjic62%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Bihać15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Bihać

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.73

Igman Konjic

1.75

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.73

Igman Konjic creates 140% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 97 away

1.55

creates per match

0.69

0.77

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.55

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.69

allows per match

Igman Konjic

0.77

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

85%

Igman Konjic or Jedinstvo Bihać

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać

38%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

35%

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

83%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

52%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals

52%

Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals

17%

Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

80%

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.95 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

62%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more

15%

Igman Konjic at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. Blagojevis

5'

S. Kasic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff