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Igman Konjic vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
2/17/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Igman Konjic47%
×Draw24%
GOŠK Gabela29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.64
GOŠK Gabela
1.23

Igman Konjic creates 33% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.06
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Igman Konjic
1.31
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
71%
Igman Konjic or GOŠK Gabela
76%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
53%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
24%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
81%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
49%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
23%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
71%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
35%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
62%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
47%
level
24%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
29%

Igman Konjic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs GOŠK Gabela

GOŠK Gabela beat Igman Konjic 2-1 in Premijer Liga on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.