GOŠK Gabela 1–2 Igman Konjic: Result & Stats

GOŠK Gabela

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Igman Konjic

8/24/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

GOŠK Gabela56%

×Draw24%

Igman Konjic21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK GabelaExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.94

GOŠK Gabela

1.72

Igman Konjic

0.94

GOŠK Gabela creates 83% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

2.03

creates per match

1.04

0.83

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela

2.03

Igman Konjic

1.04

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela

0.83

Igman Konjic

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw

79%

GOŠK Gabela or Igman Konjic

76%

Draw or Igman Konjic

44%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

31%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

82%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

51%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

25%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

61%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

24%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

73%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Igman Konjic defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.72

Igman Konjic attack 1.04 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more

56%

level

24%

Igman Konjic scores more

21%

GOŠK Gabela at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff