Igman Konjic 3–1 Goražde: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

3 – 1

Goražde

10/3/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Igman Konjic51%

×Draw27%

Goražde22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchGoražde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.85

Igman Konjic

1.44

Goražde

0.85

Igman Konjic creates 69% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

1.53

creates per match

0.91

0.80

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.53

Goražde

0.91

allows per match

Igman Konjic

0.80

Goražde

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Goražde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

78%

Igman Konjic or Goražde

73%

Draw or Goražde

49%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

25%

Goražde wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

76%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

42%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

18%

Goražde 1+ goals

57%

Goražde 2+ goals

21%

Goražde 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

70%

Goražde (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Goražde attack 0.91 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

51%

level

27%

Goražde scores more

22%

Igman Konjic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff