Igman Konjic 1–1 Budućnost Banovići: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Budućnost Banovići

Unknown 63'

A. Derzic 14'

3/26/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Igman Konjic54%

×Draw25%

Budućnost Banovići21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Banovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.92

Igman Konjic

1.64

Budućnost Banovići

0.92

Igman Konjic creates 78% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 96 away

1.55

creates per match

1.07

0.77

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.55

Budućnost Banovići

1.07

allows per match

Igman Konjic

0.77

Budućnost Banovići

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Budućnost Banovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

79%

Igman Konjic or Budućnost Banovići

75%

Draw or Budućnost Banovići

46%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

29%

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

81%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

49%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

23%

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals

60%

Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals

23%

Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

72%

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

54%

level

25%

Budućnost Banovići scores more

21%

Igman Konjic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Derzic

63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff