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Igilik vs Zhenys — 1. Division 2019

Igilik
Igilik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zhenys
Zhenys
6/19/20221. Division1. Division · Round 8Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Igilik21%
×Draw21%
Zhenys58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igilik
1.21
Zhenys
2.12

Zhenys creates 75% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Igilik
1.04
Zhenys
1.78

allows per match

Igilik
2.46
Zhenys
1.37

finishing

Igilik+0.00on par
Zhenys+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igilik ↓

Zhenys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Igilik or draw
42%
Igilik or Zhenys
79%
Draw or Zhenys
79%

Winning margin

Igilik wins by 2+
8%
Zhenys wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Igilik 1+ goals
70%
Igilik 2+ goals
34%
Igilik 3+ goals
12%
Zhenys 1+ goals
88%
Zhenys 2+ goals
62%
Zhenys 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Igilik (draw refunded)
27%
Zhenys (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igilik at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.46 · 24 matches

Zhenys away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igilik attack 1.04 + Zhenys defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Zhenys attack 1.78 + Igilik defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Igilik scores more
21%
level
21%
Zhenys scores more
58%

Zhenys at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zhenys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igilik vs Zhenys

Igilik beat Zhenys 2-0 in 1. Division on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Karatau.