Iğdır FK 3–0 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Iğdır FK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

12/21/2024

1. Lig · Round 17Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Iğdır FK71%

×Draw17%

Yeni Malatyaspor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iğdır FKExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.82

Iğdır FK

2.34

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.82

Iğdır FK creates 185% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 33 away

1.53

creates per match

0.70

0.95

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Iğdır FK

1.53

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.70

allows per match

Iğdır FK

0.95

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw

88%

Iğdır FK or Yeni Malatyaspor

83%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

29%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

48%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

90%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

67%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

41%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

56%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

20%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

86%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.34

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Iğdır FK scores more

71%

level

17%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

12%

Iğdır FK at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff