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Iğdır FK vs Vanspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
Preview
17:00
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
12/20/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 19
45%
Iğdır FK
model favours
45%25%30%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Iğdır FK45%
×Draw25%
Vanspor FK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
1.53
Vanspor FK
1.19

Iğdır FK creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
1.53
Vanspor FK
1.42

allows per match

Iğdır FK
0.95
Vanspor FK
1.53

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
70%
Iğdır FK or Vanspor FK
75%
Draw or Vanspor FK
55%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
23%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
78%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
45%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
20%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
70%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
33%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
60%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Vanspor FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vanspor FK attack 1.42 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
45%
level
25%
Vanspor FK scores more
30%

Iğdır FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FK
DLDWL
FK
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iğdır FK vs Vanspor FK — Match Preview

Iğdır FK face Vanspor FK on December 20, 2026 in this 1. Lig fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.