Iğdır FK 0–0 Orduspor 1967: Result & Stats

Iğdır FK

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orduspor 1967

9/8/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundAtatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iğdır FK63%

×Draw17%

Orduspor 196720%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iğdır FKExpected goals in this matchOrduspor 1967

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.50

Iğdır FK

2.75

Orduspor 1967

1.50

Iğdır FK creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.25

creates per match

1.25

1.75

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Iğdır FK

3.25

Orduspor 1967

1.25

allows per match

Iğdır FK

1.75

Orduspor 1967

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Orduspor 1967+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Orduspor 1967 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw

80%

Iğdır FK or Orduspor 1967

83%

Draw or Orduspor 1967

37%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

43%

Orduspor 1967 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

93%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

75%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

51%

Orduspor 1967 1+ goals

78%

Orduspor 1967 2+ goals

44%

Orduspor 1967 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

76%

Orduspor 1967 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Orduspor 1967 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 3.25 + Orduspor 1967 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.75

Orduspor 1967 attack 1.25 + Iğdır FK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Iğdır FK scores more

63%

level

17%

Orduspor 1967 scores more

20%

Iğdır FK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff