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Iğdır FK vs Muş Sport Klübü — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Muş Sport Klübü
Muş Sport Klübü
12/3/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundIğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iğdır FK59%
×Draw18%
Muş Sport Klübü23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
2.70
Muş Sport Klübü
1.66

Iğdır FK creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
3.25
Muş Sport Klübü
1.57

allows per match

Iğdır FK
1.75
Muş Sport Klübü
2.14

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Muş Sport Klübü+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Muş Sport Klübü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
77%
Iğdır FK or Muş Sport Klübü
82%
Draw or Muş Sport Klübü
41%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
39%
Muş Sport Klübü wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
93%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
75%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
50%
Muş Sport Klübü 1+ goals
81%
Muş Sport Klübü 2+ goals
49%
Muş Sport Klübü 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
72%
Muş Sport Klübü (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Muş Sport Klübü away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 3.25 + Muş Sport Klübü defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.70

Muş Sport Klübü attack 1.57 + Iğdır FK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
59%
level
18%
Muş Sport Klübü scores more
23%

Iğdır FK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Iğdır FK 2–3 Muş Sport Klübü

Muş Sport Klübü beat Iğdır FK 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu in Iğdır.