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Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
1/11/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 19Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Iğdır FK40%
×Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
1.31
Fatih Karagümrük
1.15

Iğdır FK creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

allows per match

Iğdır FK
0.95
Fatih Karagümrük
1.08

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
67%
Iğdır FK or Fatih Karagümrük
73%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
60%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
18%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
73%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
38%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
14%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
68%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
32%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
55%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
40%
level
27%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
33%

Iğdır FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Iğdır FK 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük

Fatih Karagümrük beat Iğdır FK 1-0 in 1. Lig on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu in Iğdır.