Iğdır FK 1–2 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Iğdır FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

A. Regattin 24'

H. Čataković 88'

Óscar Pinchi 53'

9/15/2024

1. Lig · Round 5Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Iğdır FK37%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iğdır FKExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.33

Iğdır FK

1.35

Esenler Erokspor

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.53

creates per match

1.71

0.95

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Iğdır FK

1.53

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Iğdır FK

0.95

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw

63%

Iğdır FK or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

63%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

17%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

74%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

39%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

15%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

74%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

38%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

51%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Iğdır FK scores more

37%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

37%

Iğdır FK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Faye

Esenler Erokspor · M

7.7

Match Events

24'

A. Regattin

45'

Hasan Hatipoğlu

46'

B. Çoban← A. Regattin

53'

Óscar Pinchi↳ M. Faye

62'

R. Jack← S. Aytaç

63'

Mame Mor Faye

68'

V. Eysseric← Thuram

68'

H. Čataković← J. Fernándes

69'

76'

79'

79'

80'

80'

84'

Ö. Şişmanoğlu← A. Öztürk

84'

Marcos Silva← B. Altıparmak

86'

E. Korkmazoğlu← Óscar Pinchi

88'

Ryan Jack

88'

H. Čataković↳ M. Faye

90+5'

Eşref Korkmazoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IğdırEsenler

Overview

69%Possession31%

12Total Shots5

6Corners0

8Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked0

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

606Total Passes278

529Accurate Passes198

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls10

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1