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Iğdır FK vs Elazığ Belediyespor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
9/30/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundOsmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iğdır FK54%
×Draw20%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
2.38
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.63

Iğdır FK creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
3.25
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.50

allows per match

Iğdır FK
1.75
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.50

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Elazığ Belediyespor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Elazığ Belediyespor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
74%
Iğdır FK or Elazığ Belediyespor FK
80%
Draw or Elazığ Belediyespor FK
46%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
34%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
91%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
68%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
42%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 1+ goals
80%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 2+ goals
48%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
67%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Elazığ Belediyespor FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 3.25 + Elazığ Belediyespor FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Elazığ Belediyespor FK attack 1.50 + Iğdır FK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
54%
level
20%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK scores more
26%

Iğdır FK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Iğdır FK 0–0 Elazığ Belediyespor FK

Iğdır FK and Elazığ Belediyespor FK drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.