Iğdır FK 1–1 Boluspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Iğdır FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Boluspor

10/19/2025

1. Lig · Round 10Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Iğdır FK47%

×Draw26%

Boluspor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iğdır FKExpected goals in this matchBoluspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.05

Iğdır FK

1.46

Boluspor

1.05

Iğdır FK creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 148 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Iğdır FK

1.53

Boluspor

1.15

allows per match

Iğdır FK

0.95

Boluspor

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Boluspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw

73%

Iğdır FK or Boluspor

74%

Draw or Boluspor

53%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

23%

Boluspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

77%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

43%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

18%

Boluspor 1+ goals

65%

Boluspor 2+ goals

28%

Boluspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

63%

Boluspor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Boluspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Boluspor attack 1.15 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Iğdır FK scores more

47%

level

26%

Boluspor scores more

27%

Iğdır FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff