Iğdır FK vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Iğdır FK37%
Bodrum FK36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 38 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Iğdır FK ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches
Bodrum FK away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Bodrum FK defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31
Bodrum FK attack 1.62 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Iğdır FK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Kocaelispor
Genclerbirligi
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
İstanbulspor
Erzurum BB
Boluspor76 Iğdır Belediyespor
Amed
Yeni Çorumspor
Ümraniyespor
Erokspor
Sakaryaspor
Keçiörengücü
Manisa BBSK
Pendikspor
Ankaragucu
Şanlıurfaspor
Adanaspor
Yeni MalatyasporIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Iğdır FK host Bodrum FK on Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the 1. Lig 2024/2025 season.
1. Lig: Iğdır FK 2–3 Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK beat Iğdır FK 3-2 in 1. Lig on March 12, 2026.
Goals: T. Seferi (18' pen), G. Bruno (54' pen), A. Aslan (56'), O. Imeri (63'), Tsunami (90').
Iğdır FK controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 7.
The match was played at Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu in Iğdır.