Iğdır FK 1–0 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Iğdır FK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ankaragücü

11/3/2024

1. Lig · Round 11Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Iğdır FK42%

×Draw27%

Ankaragücü31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iğdır FKExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Iğdır FK

1.36

Ankaragücü

1.13

Iğdır FK creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

0.95

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Iğdır FK

1.53

Ankaragücü

1.30

allows per match

Iğdır FK

0.95

Ankaragücü

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw

69%

Iğdır FK or Ankaragücü

73%

Draw or Ankaragücü

58%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

20%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

74%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

39%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

16%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

68%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

31%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

57%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Ankaragücü defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ankaragücü attack 1.30 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Iğdır FK scores more

42%

level

27%

Ankaragücü scores more

31%

Iğdır FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff