Iğdır FK 6–1 Adanaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Iğdır FK

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Adanaspor

B. Altıparmak 90+3'

A. Regattin 85' (pen)

D. Liço 51', 23'

H. Hatipoğlu 34'

K. Aleksić 27'

M. Yıldırım 42' (pen)

8/18/2024

1. Lig · Round 2Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Iğdır FK53%

×Draw25%

Adanaspor22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iğdır FKExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.92

Iğdır FK

1.57

Adanaspor

0.92

Iğdır FK creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 116 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

0.95

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Iğdır FK

1.53

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

Iğdır FK

0.95

Adanaspor

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw

78%

Iğdır FK or Adanaspor

75%

Draw or Adanaspor

47%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

27%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

79%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

46%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

21%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

60%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

23%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

70%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Adanaspor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Iğdır FK scores more

53%

level

25%

Adanaspor scores more

22%

Iğdır FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

D. Liço

Iğdır FK · M

9.3

Match Events

12'

Hasan Hatipoğlu

12'

Mehmet Feyzi Yıldırım

23'

D. Liço

27'

K. Aleksić↳ A. Engin

34'

H. Hatipoğlu↳ D. Liço

42'

M. YıldırımPenalty

45+3'

45+2'

51'

62'

62'

62'

62'

68'

T. Gemicibaşı← C. Diakité

68'

D. Emeksiz← S. Yépié Yépié

71'

B. Keskin← A. Engin

71'

A. Ćatić← C. Cavlan

80'

Ö. Şişmanoğlu← K. Aleksić

80'

N. Niemann← Guima

84'

Mehmet Feyzi Yıldırım

84'

Mehmet Feyzi Yıldırım

85'

A. RegattinPenalty

86'

A. Selvi← H. Hatipoğlu

90'

F. Katipoğlu← A. Dabo

90+1'

A. Kılınç← M. Altunbaş

90+3'

B. Altıparmak↳ Ö. Şişmanoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IğdırAdanaspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots12

6Corners10

16Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target2

4Off Target7

1Blocked3

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

403Total Passes315

353Accurate Passes258

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls10

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0