Igalo 1–0 Mladost Lješkopolje: Result & Stats

Igalo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Lješkopolje

8/23/2025

Second League · Round 2Stadion Solila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Igalo45%

×Draw26%

Mladost Lješkopolje29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IgaloExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Igalo

1.48

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.13

Igalo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 69 away

1.38

creates per match

1.20

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Igalo

1.38

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.20

allows per match

Igalo

1.05

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igalo+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igalo ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Igalo or draw

71%

Igalo or Mladost Lješkopolje

74%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

55%

Winning margin

Igalo wins by 2+

22%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Igalo 1+ goals

77%

Igalo 2+ goals

43%

Igalo 3+ goals

19%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

68%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

31%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Igalo (draw refunded)

61%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igalo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igalo attack 1.38 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Igalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Igalo scores more

45%

level

26%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

29%

Igalo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Igalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff