Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Igalo vs Kom — Second League 2019

Igalo
Igalo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kom
Kom
8/16/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Stadion Solila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Igalo45%
×Draw26%
Kom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igalo
1.48
Kom
1.15

Igalo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

creates per match

Igalo
1.38
Kom
1.24

allows per match

Igalo
1.05
Kom
1.58

finishing

Igalo+0.00on par
Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igalo ↓

Kom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Igalo or draw
71%
Igalo or Kom
74%
Draw or Kom
55%

Winning margin

Igalo wins by 2+
22%
Kom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Igalo 1+ goals
77%
Igalo 2+ goals
43%
Igalo 3+ goals
19%
Kom 1+ goals
68%
Kom 2+ goals
32%
Kom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Igalo (draw refunded)
60%
Kom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igalo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Kom away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igalo attack 1.38 + Kom defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kom attack 1.24 + Igalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Igalo scores more
45%
level
26%
Kom scores more
29%

Igalo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Igalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Igalo 1–0 Kom

Igalo beat Kom 1-0 in Second League on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Solila in Igalo.