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Igaci vs Miguelense — Alagoano - 2 2024

Igaci
Igaci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Miguelense
Miguelense
Unknown 35'
10/9/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Igaci77%
×Draw18%
Miguelense6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igaci
1.96
Miguelense
0.34

Igaci creates 476% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Igaci
2.33
Miguelense
0.50

allows per match

Igaci
0.17
Miguelense
1.58

finishing

Igaci+0.00on par
Miguelense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igaci ↓

Miguelense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Igaci or draw
94%
Igaci or Miguelense
82%
Draw or Miguelense
23%

Winning margin

Igaci wins by 2+
49%
Miguelense wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Igaci 1+ goals
86%
Igaci 2+ goals
58%
Igaci 3+ goals
31%
Miguelense 1+ goals
29%
Miguelense 2+ goals
5%
Miguelense 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Igaci (draw refunded)
93%
Miguelense (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igaci at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Miguelense away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igaci attack 2.33 + Miguelense defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.96

Miguelense attack 0.50 + Igaci defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Igaci scores more
77%
level
18%
Miguelense scores more
6%

Igaci at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Igaci 1–0 Miguelense

Igaci beat Miguelense 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on October 9, 2024.

Goals: ? (35').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa in Igaci, Alagoas.