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Igaci vs CEO — Alagoano - 2 2024

Igaci
Igaci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CEO
CEO
M. Palhinha 59'
9/22/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Igaci64%
×Draw25%
CEO11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igaci
1.56
CEO
0.49

Igaci creates 218% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Igaci
2.33
CEO
0.80

allows per match

Igaci
0.17
CEO
0.80

finishing

Igaci+0.00on par
CEO+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igaci ↓

CEO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Igaci or draw
89%
Igaci or CEO
75%
Draw or CEO
36%

Winning margin

Igaci wins by 2+
35%
CEO wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Igaci 1+ goals
79%
Igaci 2+ goals
46%
Igaci 3+ goals
21%
CEO 1+ goals
39%
CEO 2+ goals
9%
CEO 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Igaci (draw refunded)
85%
CEO (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igaci at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

CEO away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igaci attack 2.33 + CEO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

CEO attack 0.80 + Igaci defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Igaci scores more
64%
level
25%
CEO scores more
11%

Igaci at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
M. Palhinha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Igaci 1–0 CEO

Igaci beat CEO 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on September 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Palhinha (59').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa in Igaci, Alagoas.