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IFK Varnamo vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
6/13/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IFK Varnamo46%
×Draw26%
Trelleborg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.52
Trelleborg
1.13

IFK Varnamo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 110 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.32
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.11
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
72%
IFK Varnamo or Trelleborg
74%
Draw or Trelleborg
54%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
23%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
78%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
45%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
20%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
68%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
31%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
62%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
46%
level
26%
Trelleborg scores more
28%

IFK Varnamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IFK Varnamo 0–1 Trelleborg

Trelleborg beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Superettan on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.