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IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
11/3/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 29Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo29%
×Draw27%
Mjallby AIF45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.06
Mjallby AIF
1.40

Mjallby AIF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 97 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
Mjallby AIF
1.33

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
Mjallby AIF
1.11

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
55%
IFK Varnamo or Mjallby AIF
73%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
71%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
11%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
65%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
29%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
9%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
75%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
41%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
39%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
29%
level
27%
Mjallby AIF scores more
45%

Mjallby AIF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 5-0 in Allsvenskan on November 3, 2025.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Varnamo.