Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
11/10/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundFinnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo14%
×Draw18%
Malmo FF68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
0.97
Malmo FF
2.34

Malmo FF creates 141% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.38
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.75
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
32%
IFK Varnamo or Malmo FF
82%
Draw or Malmo FF
86%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
5%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
62%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
25%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
7%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
90%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
67%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
17%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.38 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
14%
level
18%
Malmo FF scores more
68%

Malmo FF at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Varnamo 0–2 Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.