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IFK Skövde vs Utsikten — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Skövde
IFK Skövde
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Utsikten
Utsikten
8/19/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSödermalms IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IFK Skövde20%
×Draw18%
Utsikten62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Skövde
1.38
Utsikten
2.52

Utsikten creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Skövde
0.75
Utsikten
1.54

allows per match

IFK Skövde
3.50
Utsikten
2.00

finishing

IFK Skövde+0.00on par
Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Skövde ↓

Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

IFK Skövde or draw
38%
IFK Skövde or Utsikten
82%
Draw or Utsikten
80%

Winning margin

IFK Skövde wins by 2+
8%
Utsikten wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

IFK Skövde 1+ goals
75%
IFK Skövde 2+ goals
40%
IFK Skövde 3+ goals
16%
Utsikten 1+ goals
92%
Utsikten 2+ goals
71%
Utsikten 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)
24%
Utsikten (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Skövde at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Skövde attack 0.75 + Utsikten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Utsikten attack 1.54 + IFK Skövde defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

IFK Skövde scores more
20%
level
18%
Utsikten scores more
62%

Utsikten at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Skövde vs Utsikten

IFK Skövde beat Utsikten 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Södermalms IP Konstgräs in Skövde.