IFK Skövde 2–0 Säffle SK: Result & Stats

IFK Skövde

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Säffle SK

6/2/2023

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 10Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

IFK Skövde64%

×Draw19%

Säffle SK17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK SkövdeExpected goals in this matchSäffle SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.06

IFK Skövde

2.23

Säffle SK

1.06

IFK Skövde creates 110% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 26 away

2.23

creates per match

0.81

1.30

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

IFK Skövde

2.23

Säffle SK

0.81

allows per match

IFK Skövde

1.30

Säffle SK

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Skövde ↓

Säffle SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

IFK Skövde or draw

83%

IFK Skövde or Säffle SK

81%

Draw or Säffle SK

36%

Winning margin

IFK Skövde wins by 2+

40%

Säffle SK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

IFK Skövde 1+ goals

89%

IFK Skövde 2+ goals

65%

IFK Skövde 3+ goals

38%

Säffle SK 1+ goals

65%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

29%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)

79%

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Skövde at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Skövde attack 2.23 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + IFK Skövde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

IFK Skövde scores more

64%

level

19%

Säffle SK scores more

17%

IFK Skövde at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "IFK Skövde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff