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IFK Skövde vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Skövde
IFK Skövde
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
3/1/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IFK Skövde5%
×Draw10%
Djurgardens IF85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Skövde
0.78
Djurgardens IF
3.38

Djurgardens IF creates 333% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

IFK Skövde
0.75
Djurgardens IF
3.25

allows per match

IFK Skövde
3.50
Djurgardens IF
0.81

finishing

IFK Skövde+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Skövde ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

IFK Skövde or draw
15%
IFK Skövde or Djurgardens IF
90%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
95%

Winning margin

IFK Skövde wins by 2+
1%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

IFK Skövde 1+ goals
54%
IFK Skövde 2+ goals
18%
IFK Skövde 3+ goals
4%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
96%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)
6%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Skövde at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Skövde attack 0.75 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + IFK Skövde defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

IFK Skövde scores more
5%
level
10%
Djurgardens IF scores more
85%

Djurgardens IF at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Skövde vs Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat IFK Skövde 8-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 1, 2026.