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IFK Skövde vs Angered BK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

IFK Skövde
IFK Skövde
FT
3 – 3
Angered BK
Angered BK
7/31/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 18Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

IFK Skövde49%
×Draw21%
Angered BK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Skövde
2.13
Angered BK
1.63

IFK Skövde creates 31% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 27 away

creates per match

IFK Skövde
2.23
Angered BK
1.96

allows per match

IFK Skövde
1.30
Angered BK
2.04

finishing

IFK Skövde+0.00on par
Angered BK+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Skövde ↓

Angered BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

IFK Skövde or draw
70%
IFK Skövde or Angered BK
79%
Draw or Angered BK
51%

Winning margin

IFK Skövde wins by 2+
29%
Angered BK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IFK Skövde 1+ goals
88%
IFK Skövde 2+ goals
63%
IFK Skövde 3+ goals
35%
Angered BK 1+ goals
80%
Angered BK 2+ goals
48%
Angered BK 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)
62%
Angered BK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Skövde at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Angered BK away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Skövde attack 2.23 + Angered BK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.13

Angered BK attack 1.96 + IFK Skövde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Skövde scores more
49%
level
21%
Angered BK scores more
30%

IFK Skövde at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Skövde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: IFK Skövde 3–3 Angered BK

IFK Skövde and Angered BK drew 3-3 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.