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IFK Östersund vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

IFK Östersund
IFK Östersund
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Umea FF
Umea FF
4/23/2023Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 4Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

IFK Östersund34%
×Draw24%
Umea FF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Östersund
1.44
Umea FF
1.63

Umea FF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 46 away

creates per match

IFK Östersund
2.04
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

IFK Östersund
1.17
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

IFK Östersund+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Östersund ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IFK Östersund or draw
58%
IFK Östersund or Umea FF
76%
Draw or Umea FF
66%

Winning margin

IFK Östersund wins by 2+
16%
Umea FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IFK Östersund 1+ goals
76%
IFK Östersund 2+ goals
42%
IFK Östersund 3+ goals
18%
Umea FF 1+ goals
80%
Umea FF 2+ goals
48%
Umea FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IFK Östersund (draw refunded)
45%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Östersund at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Östersund attack 2.04 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Umea FF attack 2.09 + IFK Östersund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Östersund scores more
34%
level
24%
Umea FF scores more
42%

Umea FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Östersund vs Umea FF

Umea FF beat IFK Östersund 4-0 in Division 2 - Norrland on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.