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IFK Österåker vs Dalkurd FF — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

IFK Österåker
IFK Österåker
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
L. Ahlberg 87'
H. Slattenhall 51'
H. Suff 2'
A. Langley 82'
4/20/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 4Röllingby 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Österåker52%
×Draw21%
Dalkurd FF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Österåker
2.16
Dalkurd FF
1.50

IFK Österåker creates 44% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Österåker
1.62
Dalkurd FF
1.23

allows per match

IFK Österåker
1.77
Dalkurd FF
2.69

finishing

IFK Österåker+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Österåker ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

IFK Österåker or draw
73%
IFK Österåker or Dalkurd FF
79%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
48%

Winning margin

IFK Österåker wins by 2+
31%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IFK Österåker 1+ goals
88%
IFK Österåker 2+ goals
63%
IFK Österåker 3+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
78%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
44%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

IFK Österåker (draw refunded)
66%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Österåker at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 71 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Österåker attack 1.62 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.16

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + IFK Österåker defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IFK Österåker scores more
52%
level
21%
Dalkurd FF scores more
27%

IFK Österåker at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IFK Österåker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
H. Suff
51'
H. Slattenhall
82'
A. Langley
87'
L. Ahlberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: IFK Österåker 3–1 Dalkurd FF

IFK Österåker beat Dalkurd FF 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on April 20, 2024.

Goals: H. Suff (2'), H. Slattenhall (51'), A. Langley (82'), L. Ahlberg (87').

The match was played at Röllingby 1 in Åkersberga.