IFK Norrkoping 1–0 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

1 – 0

Orebro SK

6/24/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Norrkoping57%

×Draw23%

Orebro SK20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.97

IFK Norrkoping

1.80

Orebro SK

0.97

IFK Norrkoping creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.22

creates per match

1.50

0.44

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

2.22

Orebro SK

1.50

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

0.44

Orebro SK

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

80%

IFK Norrkoping or Orebro SK

77%

Draw or Orebro SK

43%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

32%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

83%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

54%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

27%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

62%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

25%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

74%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.22 + Orebro SK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

57%

level

23%

Orebro SK scores more

20%

IFK Norrkoping at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff