IFK Luleå 0–4 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

IFK Luleå

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Varbergs BoIS FC

I. Bjerkebo 81'

A. Kurochkin 72'

A. Yusuf 49'

D. Montiel 17'

2/19/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Arcushallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IFK Luleå16%

×Draw20%

Varbergs BoIS FC64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK LuleåExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.10

IFK Luleå

0.93

Varbergs BoIS FC

2.10

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 126% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

0.67

creates per match

1.76

2.44

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

IFK Luleå

0.67

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.76

allows per match

IFK Luleå

2.44

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw

36%

IFK Luleå or Varbergs BoIS FC

80%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

84%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+

5%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals

61%

IFK Luleå 2+ goals

24%

IFK Luleå 3+ goals

7%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

88%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

62%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)

20%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 0.67 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + IFK Luleå defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

IFK Luleå scores more

16%

level

20%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

64%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

26'

49'

57'

65'

M. Norrbin← V. Drugge

67'

A. Kurochkin← D. Montiel

72'

A. Kurochkin

81'

I. Bjerkebo

82'

H. Yahye← H. Bergman

82'

L. Fredriksson← W. Nordell

82'

M. Tokich← I. Vidjeskog

87'

H. Zackrisson← I. Bjerkebo

88'

S. Chretien

IFK

Varbergs

▼

⚽

▼

Montiel

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Engberg

57'▲J. Sochor←▼L. Soini

65'▲M. Norrbin←▼V. Drugge

82'▲H. Yahye←▼H. Bergman

82'▲L. Fredriksson←▼W. Nordell

IFK Luleå substitutes

SochorNorrbinYahyeFredrikssonForsmanHenrikssonRingvallKanamugireLindgren

Manager: T. Linderoth

67'▲A. Kurochkin←▼D. Montiel

82'▲M. Tokich←▼I. Vidjeskog

87'▲H. Zackrisson←▼I. Bjerkebo

Varbergs BoIS FC substitutes

KurochkinTokichZackrissonBorchersDryseliusRönnberg

Svenska Cupen: IFK Luleå 0–4 Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat IFK Luleå 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2024.

Goals: D. Montiel (17'), A. Yusuf (49'), A. Kurochkin (72'), I. Bjerkebo (81').

The match was played at Arcushallen in Luleå.

IFK Luleå vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Svenska Cupen: IFK Luleå 0–4 Varbergs BoIS FC