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IFK Luleå vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
2/24/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Arcushallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IFK Luleå6%
×Draw13%
Malmo FF81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Luleå
0.62
Malmo FF
2.69

Malmo FF creates 334% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

IFK Luleå
0.67
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

IFK Luleå
2.44
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw
19%
IFK Luleå or Malmo FF
87%
Draw or Malmo FF
94%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+
1%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals
46%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
13%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
3%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
93%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
74%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
7%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 0.67 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + IFK Luleå defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

IFK Luleå scores more
6%
level
13%
Malmo FF scores more
81%

Malmo FF at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Luleå 0–8 Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat IFK Luleå 8-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Arcushallen in Luleå.