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IFK Luleå vs Hammarby FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
8/21/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundNyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IFK Luleå9%
×Draw15%
Hammarby FF76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Luleå
0.78
Hammarby FF
2.63

Hammarby FF creates 237% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

IFK Luleå
0.67
Hammarby FF
2.82

allows per match

IFK Luleå
2.44
Hammarby FF
0.88

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw
24%
IFK Luleå or Hammarby FF
85%
Draw or Hammarby FF
91%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+
2%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals
54%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
18%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
4%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
93%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
73%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
10%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 0.67 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + IFK Luleå defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

IFK Luleå scores more
9%
level
15%
Hammarby FF scores more
76%

Hammarby FF at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Luleå 1–3 Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat IFK Luleå 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Nyabvallen in Luleå.