IFK Luleå 0–2 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

IFK Luleå

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Degerfors IF

D. Pavlović 54'

O. Wallin 47'

2/19/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Arcushallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IFK Luleå16%

×Draw18%

Degerfors IF66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK LuleåExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

2.51

IFK Luleå

1.16

Degerfors IF

2.51

Degerfors IF creates 116% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

0.67

creates per match

2.59

2.44

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

IFK Luleå

0.67

Degerfors IF

2.59

allows per match

IFK Luleå

2.44

Degerfors IF

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw

34%

IFK Luleå or Degerfors IF

82%

Draw or Degerfors IF

84%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+

6%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals

69%

IFK Luleå 2+ goals

32%

IFK Luleå 3+ goals

11%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

92%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

71%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)

19%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 0.67 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.16

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + IFK Luleå defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

IFK Luleå scores more

16%

level

18%

Degerfors IF scores more

66%

Degerfors IF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

O. Wallin← G. Granath

47'

O. Wallin

54'

D. Pavlović

56'

V. Hugoson← H. Bergman

70'

J. S. Richards

70'

E. Bandh← J. Vleugels

72'

A. Mammar← D. Pavlović

72'

E. Lindell← J. Gyau

72'

J. Salmon← E. Bouzaiene

79'

A. Lidman← Luís Canina

79'

G. Lindgren← D. Vukojević

90'

E. Bandh

IFK

Degerfors

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Hanley

56'▲V. Hugoson←▼H. Bergman

70'▲E. Bandh←▼J. Vleugels

79'▲A. Lidman←▼Luís Canina

IFK Luleå substitutes

HugosonBandhLidmanFeilitzenAlataloAlbagDrugge

Manager: A. Holmberg

32'▲O. Wallin←▼G. Granath

72'▲A. Mammar←▼D. Pavlović

72'▲E. Lindell←▼J. Gyau

72'▲J. Salmon←▼E. Bouzaiene

79'▲G. Lindgren←▼D. Vukojević

Degerfors IF substitutes

WallinMammarLindellSalmonLindgrenOlssonSabetkar

Match Recap: IFK Luleå vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat IFK Luleå 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2023.

Goals: O. Wallin (47'), D. Pavlović (54').

The match was played at Arcushallen in Luleå.

IFK Luleå vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: IFK Luleå vs Degerfors IF