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IFK Luleå vs Dalkurd FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
9/12/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 20Nyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IFK Luleå33%
×Draw24%
Dalkurd FF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Luleå
1.39
Dalkurd FF
1.60

Dalkurd FF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

IFK Luleå
1.40
Dalkurd FF
1.50

allows per match

IFK Luleå
1.70
Dalkurd FF
1.37

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw
58%
IFK Luleå or Dalkurd FF
76%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
67%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+
15%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals
75%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
40%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
16%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
80%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
47%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
44%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 1.40 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + IFK Luleå defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Luleå scores more
33%
level
24%
Dalkurd FF scores more
42%

Dalkurd FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: IFK Luleå 1–4 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat IFK Luleå 4-1 in Ettan - Norra on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Nyabvallen in Luleå.