IFK Luleå 2–1 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

IFK Luleå

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

8/22/2023

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundNyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IFK Luleå29%

×Draw23%

AFC Eskilstuna48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK LuleåExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.77

IFK Luleå

1.33

AFC Eskilstuna

1.77

AFC Eskilstuna creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

0.67

creates per match

1.10

2.44

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

IFK Luleå

0.67

AFC Eskilstuna

1.10

allows per match

IFK Luleå

2.44

AFC Eskilstuna

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw

52%

IFK Luleå or AFC Eskilstuna

77%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

71%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+

12%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals

74%

IFK Luleå 2+ goals

38%

IFK Luleå 3+ goals

15%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

83%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

53%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)

38%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 0.67 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.10 + IFK Luleå defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IFK Luleå scores more

29%

level

23%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

48%

AFC Eskilstuna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff