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IFK Hässleholm vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Hässleholm
IFK Hässleholm
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Asarum
Asarum
8/13/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 17Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

IFK Hässleholm48%
×Draw22%
Asarum30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Hässleholm
1.98
Asarum
1.55

IFK Hässleholm creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 47 away

creates per match

IFK Hässleholm
1.78
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

IFK Hässleholm
1.59
Asarum
2.17

finishing

IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Hässleholm ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

IFK Hässleholm or draw
70%
IFK Hässleholm or Asarum
78%
Draw or Asarum
52%

Winning margin

IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+
27%
Asarum wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals
86%
IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals
59%
IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals
31%
Asarum 1+ goals
79%
Asarum 2+ goals
46%
Asarum 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)
61%
Asarum (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Hässleholm at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.59 · 85 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.78 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Asarum attack 1.51 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IFK Hässleholm scores more
48%
level
22%
Asarum scores more
30%

IFK Hässleholm at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "IFK Hässleholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: IFK Hässleholm 2–3 Asarum

Asarum beat IFK Hässleholm 3-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Österås IP in Hässleholm.