IFK Goteborg 2–0 Vasteras SK FK: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vasteras SK FK

2/22/2020

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg44%

×Draw25%

Vasteras SK FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchVasteras SK FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

IFK Goteborg

1.50

Vasteras SK FK

1.22

IFK Goteborg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.85

creates per match

1.58

0.85

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.85

Vasteras SK FK

1.58

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

0.85

Vasteras SK FK

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Vasteras SK FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

69%

IFK Goteborg or Vasteras SK FK

75%

Draw or Vasteras SK FK

56%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

21%

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

78%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

44%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

19%

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

70%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

34%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

59%

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.58 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

44%

level

25%

Vasteras SK FK scores more

31%

IFK Goteborg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff