IFK Goteborg 3–2 Utsikten: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Utsikten

E. Hagen 43'

H. Carneil 39'

E. Marković 12'

F. Martinsson 82'

A. Skoglund 35'

2/20/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg54%

×Draw22%

Utsikten24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.20

IFK Goteborg

1.93

Utsikten

1.20

IFK Goteborg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

1.54

0.85

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.85

Utsikten

1.54

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

0.85

Utsikten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

76%

IFK Goteborg or Utsikten

78%

Draw or Utsikten

46%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

31%

Utsikten wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

85%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

57%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

30%

Utsikten 1+ goals

70%

Utsikten 2+ goals

34%

Utsikten 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

70%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Utsikten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Utsikten attack 1.54 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

54%

level

22%

Utsikten scores more

24%

IFK Goteborg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

E. Marković

24'

I. Pekalski

35'

A. Skoglund

38'

A. Benediktsson← P. Dahlberg

39'

43'

44'

51'

52'

E. Gunnarsson← R. Mukiibi

53'

F. Martinsson← I. Pękalski

60'

L. Hedlund← K. Bohm

61'

M. Gorgos← A. Skoglund

62'

H. Carneil

67'

L. Carlstrand← E. Salomonsson

67'

S. Ohlsson← S. Abdullahi

77'

77'

79'

82'

83'

86'

87'

J. Selvén← H. Carneil

IFK

Utsikten

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Marković

Norlin

⚽

Hagen

⚽

▼

Carneil

▼

Abdullahi

Manager: M. Stahre

38'▲A. Benediktsson←▼P. Dahlberg

67'▲L. Carlstrand←▼E. Salomonsson

67'▲S. Ohlsson←▼S. Abdullahi

86'▲M. Berg←▼E. Marković

87'▲J. Selvén←▼H. Carneil

IFK Goteborg substitutes

BenediktssonCarlstrandOhlssonBergSelvénHausnerThern

Manager: B. Orovic

52'▲E. Gunnarsson←▼R. Mukiibi

53'▲F. Martinsson←▼I. Pękalski

60'▲L. Hedlund←▼K. Bohm

61'▲M. Gorgos←▼A. Skoglund

83'▲E. Bosnic←▼J. Brandt

Utsikten substitutes

GunnarssonMartinssonHedlundGorgosBosnicJohanssonLehto