IFK Goteborg 4–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Stabaek

M. Fenger 72' (pen)

S. Clemmensen 66'

Unknown 58' (OG)

S. Alioum 10'

O. Oppedal 75'

W. Wendt 51'

2/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

IFK Goteborg38%

×Draw22%

Stabaek40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.79

IFK Goteborg

1.75

Stabaek

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.75

1.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

2.00

Stabaek

1.75

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.83

Stabaek

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Stabaek →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

60%

IFK Goteborg or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

62%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

20%

Stabaek wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

83%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

52%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

83%

Stabaek 2+ goals

53%

Stabaek 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

49%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 2.00 + Stabaek defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stabaek attack 1.75 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

38%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

40%

Stabaek at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Alioum

51'

W. Wendt

58'

Own goal

66'

S. Clemmensen

71'

72'

M. FengerPenalty

75'

O. Oppedal

86'

IFK

Stabaek

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Stefan Billborn

Manager: Bjorn Riise

Stabaek substitutes

1Lokkevik9Bringaker17Bjorkavag18Oppedal23Wendt25Afrim27Hansen

Friendlies Clubs: IFK Goteborg 4–2 Stabaek

IFK Goteborg beat Stabaek 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.

Goals: S. Alioum (10'), W. Wendt (51'), ? (58' o.g.), S. Clemmensen (66'), M. Fenger (72' pen), O. Oppedal (75').

IFK Goteborg vs Stabaek — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: IFK Goteborg 4–2 Stabaek